It’s time for India’s biggest festival – The 2024 Indian General Elections. This will now dominate the headlines – on TV, newspaper, social media, even on WhatsApp, till the results are out on the 4th of June’24.
I have always tracked elections very closely in the past considering its impact on the economy and markets. While there is an exhaustive amount of analysis out in the mainstream media, I’ll give a brief preview on how India is poised for the upcoming elections.
Here is the schedule for the elections. This is important so that you don’t miss casting your vote on the polling day!
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The Seat of Central Power: Lok Sabha
Just for context – Lok Sabha has 543 seats which are up for grabs. To win an election, a Political Party/Alliance needs to secure a simple majority, i.e. at least 272 seats. The winning party then appoints a Prime Minister and forms the ruling government for the next 5 years.
During the last two general elections, propelled by a significant Modi-wave, the BJP alone clinched more than 50% of the Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP-led NDA alliance secured over 60% of the total seats.
But Popularity is not equal to Seat Share
Despite BJP winning 56% of the seats in 2019, their popularity (as measured by vote share) was only 38%. Whereas Congress won only 10% of the seats, even though their vote share was 20%.
For every 1% vote share during the 2019 election, BJP got ~8 seats in Lok Sabha while Congress only got ~3 seats. This is what is called the votes-to-seat conversion. It also shows that Congress voters are much more fragmented as compared to BJP’s.
What does the current Lok Sabha Seat distribution look like?
As on Jan’24, the BJP-led NDA has 319 MPs out of 543 (in orange), while the Congress-led INDIA bloc (in blue) commands 139 MPs in the Lok Sabha. This is how the seats are being shared among alliances:
What do the Opinion Polls say about 2024?
Opinion Polls conducted by various news agencies suggest that the BJP-led NDA is poised to secure a significant majority of seats in the Lok Sabha. And despite the formation of new alliances, it appears that the seat count for the Congress-led INDIA bloc is expected to diminish from its current standing.
Given the current landscape and prevailing narrative, it’s widely anticipated that the BJP-led NDA will emerge victorious with a significant margin. The key question remains the extent of their victory.
What is your opinion on the results? Do let me know your thoughts.
Till the next time,
Vijay
CEO – InCred Money
