If 2024 was a Roller Coaster, 2025 already seems to be a bumpy ride.
Welcome to 2025, a year that’s started with plenty of drama. The Indian equity market hit a rough patch early on, weighed down by bleak corporate earnings expectations. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles fires have added to the global unease, causing immense damage to life and property.
But it hasn’t been all bad news. A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has offered a ray of hope in an otherwise turbulent geopolitical landscape.
These developments remind us of the interconnectedness of risks and opportunities, all of which can ripple through the economy, markets, and ultimately, our portfolios.
As with last year’s Top Risks 2024, I’ve compiled the Top Risks of 2025. While I’ve tried to cover the significant risks to the best of my knowledge, this list isn’t exhaustive. If you think I’ve overlooked any important item, feel free to write back—I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Interestingly, many of the risks flagged in the previous edition have materialized, underscoring the importance of staying ahead of the curve.
For investors, 2025 looks to be a year of challenges and you should adapt your portfolios to navigate them.
So let’s take a closer look at the top risks of 2025.
The Risk Matrix: What to Watch Out For
The risks are categorized into Low (Yellow), Medium (Orange), and High (Red) based on their likelihood and economic impact. These assessments are subjective, and you might view them differently. What matters is preparing for what’s ahead.
Let us have a look at all these factors and why they are classified in different risk buckets!
Politics, Geopolitics & Wars: Drama on the Global Stage
A big risk this year could be the reimposition of US trade tariffs, especially under Trump’s leadership. The 2018 trade war is a cautionary tale—it disrupted industries and global supply chains. Tariffs could reignite inflation fears, delaying rate cuts in the US, and a strong dollar may keep FIIs away from emerging markets like India. Hence it is classified as Red (High Risk).
While global elections concluded last year, Delhi and Bihar elections will attract attention domestically. However, their economic and market impact is likely to be limited. (Low Risk).
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire offers some respite, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues. Its impact on global markets, however, seems to be diminishing as the world adjusts to prolonged geopolitical tensions.
Donald Trump is surely likely to shake the global order and it would be interesting to see whether there’s more peace or problem.
Global Economy & Markets: Slowing Down, Not Stopping
Global growth faces headwinds from deglobalization and trade barriers. Some believe India is shielded from these impacts, but I’d argue that no economy is an island. Ripple effects are inevitable in our interconnected world. Hence, classified as Red.
Domestic Economy: Signs of Fatigue
The RBI’s tightening of personal loans and microfinance has slowed credit growth, denting consumption and increasing NPAs, particularly in the microfinance sector. This domino effect could hinder broader economic growth.
Mumbai and Hyderabad’s real estate markets are cooling. Developers are offering aggressive deals, signaling underlying stress. For homebuyers, it’s a buyer’s market — so do bargain hard.
High valuations and disappointing corporate earnings have made FIIs cautious. The ‘buy the dip’ mantra that dominated 2024 has given way to hesitation in 2025. Adding to the mix, a flood of IPOs and other primary raises could keep market gains in check.
The upcoming budget might bring direct tax reforms. While the capital gains tax was raised last year, there’s hope for some relief in personal taxes this time around and will boost consumption if it happens. Let’s see what the government delivers.
Wildcards & Black Swans
‘The Biggest Risks are in things that we don’t see’
Events like the Covid-19 pandemic or the 2004 Tsunami had far reaching impacts on life and property. Such events can change the economies & markets for years to come. These are some examples of wildcards or black swan events.
To be honest, you can’t do much about any of these wild cards today. You can’t be too conservative and wait for a war to break out.
So What Should You Do?
While we can anticipate some risks, others—like natural disasters or a new pandemic—are less predictable. Instead of worrying, focus on being financially prepared.
I prefer to have a diversified portfolio across asset classes so that if one falters, others can compensate. I have an emergency fund (around 6 months worth of expenses) ready; and a Life and Medical insurance cover.
I hope you enjoyed this newsletter and if you did, feel free to share it with your friends and family.
Also, if you have any topics that you would like us to cover or any other feedback, do write to us at connect@incredmoney.com.
Till the next time,
Vijay
CEO – InCred Money
P.S. I share my thoughts on Investing and the Economy regularly. You can follow me here.
