“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
— Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass, a part of the “Alice in the Wonderland” series.
This quote is used when Alice, a young girl, gets schooled by the Red Queen because she always finds herself running faster and faster but staying in the same place.
But why quote a children’s book in the first place? Because it perfectly describes what’s happening in business and investing today. The idea that you have to keep moving just to maintain your position isn’t just for Alice—it plays out in the real world too.
The Red Queen in Business
Warren Buffett once explained this concept with the textile industry. Before Berkshire Hathaway became an investment giant, it was just another struggling textile company. To stay competitive, it had two choices: invest heavily in machinery to cut costs or risk becoming obsolete. But there was a problem—every other player was doing the same thing.
The result? Costs kept falling, profits remained razor-thin, and no one really gained an edge. Everyone spent more, but no one got ahead.
Think of it like a concert: if the person in front of you stands up for a better view, you do the same. Soon, the whole crowd is on its feet, but no one has a better view—they’re just more uncomfortable.
That’s the Red Queen Effect in action — where companies keep running just to avoid falling behind, often without meaningful gains.
JioHotstar: The New Content War
Fast forward to today, and we see the same phenomenon in streaming. Reliance’s acquisition of Disney+ Hotstar has rewritten the game overnight. With Disney, HBO, and Jio’s own productions under one roof, it’s a serious threat to Netflix and Amazon Prime Video.
Now, remember how Jio disrupted telecom by slashing data prices? The same playbook could unfold in streaming. If JioCinema integrates Hotstar’s vast library and keeps prices low (or bundles it with Jio plans, which seems likely), it could rapidly capture market share.
What happens next? Netflix and Amazon will have to fight back — by cutting prices, pouring billions into regional content, or locking in exclusive rights.
The result? A never-ending content war where everyone spends more, but no one truly wins. Customers might get better content, but for the platforms themselves, profitability could remain elusive.
Air India’s Uphill Battle
The airline industry is another brutal example. Air India, once the pride of Indian aviation, slowly lost ground to private players like IndiGo. Years of mismanagement, inefficiency, and competition pushed it to the brink.
The Tata Group’s acquisition was meant to be a turnaround story. Merging Air India with Vistara was supposed to strengthen its position. Yet, profitability remains a struggle.
IndiGo, with its lean cost structure and dominant market share, hasn’t just surged ahead—it has broken free from the Red Queen Trap, setting the industry’s pace. Meanwhile, Air India and other carriers remain locked in a relentless race, pouring billions into fleet expansion, service enhancements, and international routes—not to gain an edge, but simply to keep up.
As Buffett once quipped about this Industry:
“Investors have regularly poured money into the domestic airline business to finance profitless (or worse) growth. For these investors, it would have been far better if Orville (of the Wright Brothers) had failed to get off the ground at Kitty Hawk.”
The more the industry grows, the worse it gets for airlines.
The Investor’s Dilemma
Inflation acts like a downward escalator — you need to move just to stay where you are. If your investments don’t at least match inflation, you’re effectively losing money.
For an investor, they are better off avoiding companies trapped in the Red Queen Effect — a scenario where relentless spending is required just to survive, with no real progress to show for it.
So, how do you identify companies that can thrive rather than merely survive? Here’s what to look for:
- Look for pricing power – Can the company raise prices without losing customers? Businesses with strong brands or unique products (think Apple or Google) can, while those in hyper-competitive sectors often can’t.
- Check the financials – Is the company generating profits or just burning cash? If it’s spending aggressively with no clear path to sustainable returns, that’s a red flag.
- Industry dynamics – Some industries, like airlines and telecom, are structurally tough due to high fixed costs and cutthroat pricing. Others, like software or luxury goods, have better long-term economics.
The key is to invest in businesses that aren’t just running to keep up but are setting the pace. Because in the long run, the companies that break free from the Red Queen Effect are the ones that truly thrive.
While we often focus on financial investments, the Red Queen Effect applies equally to your career. In a rapidly changing world, standing still means falling behind. Unless you continuously invest time, energy, and resources into learning new skills and adapting to change, you risk being outpaced by peers and industry shifts. Just as with investing, the key to professional growth is staying ahead of the curve through relentless self-improvement.
In both finance and life, the principle remains the same: to thrive, you must do more than just keep up — you must lead.
I hope you enjoyed this newsletter and if you did, feel free to share it with your friends and family.
Also, if you have any topics that you would like us to cover or any other feedback, do write to us at connect@incredmoney.com
Till the next time,
Vijay
CEO – InCred Money
