Gold is Shining & Ready to Dominate in 2025

2024 was a blockbuster year for gold. Prices soared, central banks couldn’t stop buying, and investors flooded in. Now, as we step into 2025, gold looks set for another golden run. Let’s dive into the key factors driving this trend.

Supply & Demand: The Power Struggle

Gold Supply & Demand by Sector (Tonnes)

Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

Supply: The Struggle for Growth

Gold isn’t like fiat money—you can’t just print more of it. Global mine production barely moved, up just 0.5% YoY. Recycled gold helped a little, rising 11%, but overall supply growth was just 1%.

The real force behind rising gold prices? Surging demand!

Demand: Gold’s Growth Engine

Gold’s demand in 2024 was diverse:

  • Jewellery (41%) – Festivals, weddings, and cultural traditions kept demand resilient.
  • Industrial (7%) – AI, semiconductors, and medical technology boosted usage.
  • Investment (25%) – Surging ETF inflows, bar & coin demand skyrocketed.
  • Central Banks (23%) – Nations hoarding gold amid uncertainty.

Jewellery Demand: Tradition Shines Through

While global jewellery demand fell 11%, India remained strong, dropping only 2%. Cultural traditions and weddings ensured consistent gold buying, making India the second-largest consumer.

Source: WGC

Tech & AI — The Quiet Demand Driver

Industrial gold demand rose 7%, driven by AI, semiconductors (+9% in electronics), and medical/space tech. India’s growing electronics sector could further boost this in the coming years.

Source: WGC

Investment Demand — The Biggest Catalyst

Investment demand saw its biggest jump in four years, rising 25% YoY:

  • ETFs rebounded, with OTC inflows surging as institutions sought safety.
  • India stood out—bars & coins demand surged 29% to 239 tons.
  • Digital gold platforms made investing easier, fueling the frenzy.
Source: WGC

Central Banks: Gold’s Biggest Buyers

Central banks remained massive buyers, adding 1,044t in 2024—the third consecutive year of 1,000+t purchases.

  • China: 44t
  • Turkey: 75t
  • Poland: 90t
  • India’s RBI: 73t (4x 2023 levels), boosting reserves to 876t (11% of forex reserves)

Who’s Importing the Most Gold?

  • China: 1,411t in 2024, driven by economic uncertainty and US tensions.
  • India: Festivals, weddings, and a deep-rooted love for gold kept demand strong.

  • Turkey: Despite a 25% drop, demand remains double the 10-year average.

Gold vs. Other Asset Classes

*As of 31 December 2024. Indices used: MCX Gold Index, CRISIL Corporate Bond Index, S&P BSE Sensex Total Return Index, Clearing Corp of India Liquidity Weight T-Bill Index, ICE BofA Govt Bond Index. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

What’s Next for Gold in 2025?

Gold thrives on uncertainty—geopolitical risks, trade wars, inflation, and global instability are all bullish factors.

  • In the last six months, gold surged $431 (+17.41%) as investors rushed in amid rate cuts, US-China tensions, and economic slowdowns.
  • India’s gold demand may ease slightly (700-800t expected in 2025, per WGC), but it won’t disappear. Weddings, festivals, and digital gold adoption will keep it resilient.

The Bottom Line

With central banks hoarding, investment demand soaring, and economic uncertainty persisting, gold’s golden run is far from over. If you think gold has peaked, think again.

Stay invested, stay golden!

Sources: World Gold Council

For more financial insights, check out our blog: The Kindleberger Economic Spiral: How Fear Fuels Financial Crises

 

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